| Title | Global simulation of permafrost distribution in the past, present, and future using the frost number method |
| Author | Aus der Beek, T.; Teichert, E. |
| Author Affil | Aus der Beek, T., University of Kassel, Center for Environmental Systems Research, Federal Republic of Germany |
| Source | International Conference on Permafrost (ICOP) Proceedings, Vol.9, p.71-76, ; Ninth international conference on Permafrost, Fairbanks, AK, June 29-July 3, 2008, edited by D.L. Kane and K.M. Hinkel. Publisher: [publisher varies], [location varies], International |
| Publication Date | 2008 |
| Notes | In English. 29 refs. GeoRef Acc. No: 285548. CRREL Acc. No: 62005824 |
| Index Terms | climate; hydrology; analysis (mathematics); models; permafrost; permafrost hydrology; simulation; soils; Antarctica; Northern Hemisphere; Southern Hemisphere; frost number method; general circulation models; global; mathematical methods; spatial distribution |
| Abstract | Currently, about 39 mil km2 of the world (including Antarctica) are covered by permafrost. One aim of this modeling experiment is to compare the current global permafrost distribution with its extent in the past and in future projections by integrating the well-known Frost Number method into the global hydrological and water- use model WaterGAP. The Frost Number is related to the zonal arrangement of permafrost and was slightly modified to test its receptivity of different snow parameter formulations. For past extents the Frost Number was averaged for 1901-1930 and set in contrast to present permafrost spreading (1971-2000). The future time slice was computed by averaging permafrost extent for 2071-2100, and was yet again compared with present and past permafrost extents. From the wide variety of climate scenarios, two contrasting IPCC-SRES scenarios. A1B and B1, were chosen. CO2 and CH4 feedback loops of melting permafrost were not considered in the model. To account for the specific variability of General Circulation Models (GCMs), two different GCMs were applied for both IPCC-SRES scenarios. Model results imply that the area of global permafrost occurrence decreased by 7% between past and present conditions, and future scenarios project that 30%-45% of the contemporary extent could be diminished by 2100. The application of different snow-parameter formulations yielded only minor changes in the quantification of the Frost Number. |
| Publication Type | conference paper or compendium article |
| Record ID | 84523 |