| Title | Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system |
| Author | Lenton, T.M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.; Hall, J.W.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Schellnhuber, H.J. |
| Author Affil | Lenton, T.M., University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom. Other: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Federal Republic of Germany; Newcastle University, United Kingdom |
| Source | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105(6), p.1786-1793. Publisher: National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, United States. ISSN: 0027-8424 |
| Publication Date | Feb. 12, 2008 |
| Notes | In English. Supplemental information/data is available in the online version of this article; NSF Grant No. SES- 0345798. 112 refs. GeoRef Acc. No: 300005. CRREL Acc. No: 64004655 |
| Index Terms | atmospheric circulation; climate; climatic change; fires; glacial geology; ice; ice sheets; melting; permafrost; trees (plants); South America--Amazon Basin; Arctic Ocean; Greenland--Greenland ice sheet; Indian Ocean; Atlantic Ocean--North Atlantic; Sahara; Africa--Sahel; Africa--West Africa; Antarctica--West Antarctic ice sheet; Africa; Amazon Basin; Antarctic ice sheet; Antarctica; Arctic region; Atlantic Ocean; boreal environment; climate change; El Nino Southern Oscillation; forests; Greenland; Greenland ice sheet; monsoons; North Atlantic; public policy; rain forests; Sahel; sea ice; South America; terrestrial environment; thermohaline circulation; trees; West Africa; West Antarctic ice sheet |
| Abstract | The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points. |
| URL | http://hdl.handle.net/10.1073/pnas.0705414105 |
| Publication Type | journal article |
| Record ID | 88408 |